USD/CAD Price Analysis: All the stars aligned at this resistance point

• USD/CAD trades 0.61% higher on Thursday but could not hold above 1.3150.
• The resistance level confluenced with some key Fib zones and an oversold indicator.

USD/CAD 1-hour chart

USD/CAD has been bouncing back from its recent downtrend but today the bulls hit a brick wall. The recent change in US dollar sentiment and weaker oil prices sent the pair back up from a long term low of 1.2994 the lowest level since late January.

Looking at the chart and it is clear to see the price stopped pretty hard at the red resistance line. It was at this point the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and overbought Relative Strength Index all combined and the price fell. This is not to say it was only technicals that made the price fall, as there was a US dollar reversal across the board but this sure was a key price zone.

Tomorrow the lastest US and Canadian employment figures are due to be released the US non-farm payroll number has an analyst consensus estimate of 1.4 million. The Canadian employment change is expected to be 275K. Both of which are less than last month but the Canadian figure is to projected to have the bigger decline. As well as the employment numbers the Canadian Ivey PMI figure is also due to be released and this could also have some important implications for the Canadian dollar. 

Tomorrow's data is a bit of a binary event. The USD/CAD trend is firmly a downtrend and leading into the release the resistance level could hold and send the price lower. Looking ahead much will depend on the aforementioned data and then a more accurate forecast can be made. 

Additional levels